Sean Mannion must come back strong next season.
The New Year brings optimism for all, including the Oregon State football team. Players and coaches are using the offseason to find ways to improve.
So hear are my fearless predictions for what could/should/possibly happen with the Beavers in the coming year.
1. Yes, there can be a bowl game
The Beavers are capable of winning six games next year. How, you ask? Well, Arizona, UCLA, Washington State and Arizona State are all breaking in new coaches next season.
It will take two or three years before they get it going. ASU will be in Corvallis, so there’s no desert hex there. Those are all winnable games.
Nicholls State is winnable. I know, Sacramento State was a loss. We’ll there’s just no way losing to an I-AA team twice happens. If it does, we’ll head should roll.
So that means OSU must find one more win. Washington seems to always be beatable for the Beavers, especially with that defense showed in the Alamo Bowl. A new DC will take some time to get it going, too.
California and Utah were far from potent this year. And those games will be at home.
Oregon, Stanford, Wisconsin and BYU (on the road) will be really tough. So, the best case scenario is eight wins, but six is more realistic.
2. Malcolm Agnew returns strong
Agnew didn’t play the last couple games of the year due to fumble problems. At one point he led the nation in rushing.
He has that extra something the other backs didn’t have. So expect him to work on holding on to the ball in the spring, and be the main back again.
If he doesn’t come back strong, I don’t see a big jump in improvement in this area. I’ve always like Jovan Stevenson, but never gets a lot of carries.
WR Markus Wheaton needs a big year in 2012.
3. The OL can improve
I’m less positive with this one. I’ve a firm believer in experience, offseason work and attrition of other teams allows you to get better.
That’s what’s needed here. In my recent blog looking at the OL, I predict a starting lineup of OT Colin Kelly, OG Josh Andrews, C Geoff Garner, OG Grant Enger and OT Michael Philipp.
They have experience. It’s a matter of healing up from injuries and finding that nasty attitude. That’s the missing piece.
If not, the Beavers need the likes of Darryl Jackson, Justin Addie and Roman Sapolu to bring it and take over.
4. Civil War streak continues
The Ducks have won the Civil War the last four years. My way too early pick is five in a row. A lot of things can happen between then and now, so my pick my change come game week.
Just by looking at how the programs have been going, there is a big difference between the two right now.
5. No staff changes
Since I’m picking OSU to go to a bowl game, which means there will be a reasonable amount of success. So, the staff remains the same — unless someone is hired away, of course.
If my No. 1 prediction is wrong, we’ll I guess that causes a chain reaction. The OL didn’t improve and pink slips will be handed out.
So what are you predictions for 2012. That covers the most pressing matters. And happy New Year.
My other disclaimer is if the Beavers win the Pac-12, what is the chance of all those December 2012 end of the world people might be right and keep the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl.
Check out some highlights from last season, too.
29 comments
Benny B. says:
Jan 3, 2012
Nicholls State is winnable. I know, Sacramento State was a loss. We’ll there’s just no way losing to an I-AA team twice happens. If it does, we’ll head should roll. Wrong Riley will just say gawley gee find something else to blame it on other than his poor coaching and say were looking ahead for improvement. We will never win with Riley at the helm.
WAbeaver says:
Jan 4, 2012
Are you kidding me!!! We had the 3rd best record in the original pac-10 in the last decade. We are rebuilding and we have the best recruiting class coming in. We have won under Mike Riley and we will get back to winning next year!!!
Tagup says:
Jan 9, 2012
So…your saying that OSU will lose to Nicholls State? are you a betting man?
SoOrAaron says:
Jan 3, 2012
LOL, that would be just our luck!
OSU4Life says:
Jan 3, 2012
The problem with the OSU athletic department is complacency.
“Complacency is the enemy of success.” -unknown
The difference between OSU’s athletic department and u of o’s athetic department has never been wider than they are today. At u of o they believe they can and will compete with the best. At OSU, they hope for the best, but don’t really care or expect to be the best. The u of o football team looks more like and NFL team, while the OSU football team looks more like a Pop Warner team. For OSU to become successful, the attitude and the mindset must change!
Yes you can compete for Pac-12 Championships and National Championships at OSU, yes you can recruit to Corvallis, yes you can win and be successful in Corvallis, yes you can and should defeat your rival! I’m so sick of the duck lovefest happening all around! The entire fanbase and current administration should be disgusted too! However, if we are all complacent, then we will never be successful.
kersting13 says:
Jan 3, 2012
Don’t kid yourself, the difference between OSU’s athletic department and u of o’s isn’t that “they believe”.
They believe BECAUSE they have a benefactor who has LITERALLY poured more $$$$ into their athletic programs than any other donor in the history of college sports.
Now, if you can change that, you might have a point.
OSU4Life says:
Jan 3, 2012
You’re correct, u of o has the largest benefactor in college football history! Also, u of o would NOT be where they are today without him, everyone knows that even *uck fans. However, Phil Knight doesn’t call the plays, instill the schemes and philosophy, he doesn’t put the pads on. OSU is too apologetic with their approach, they play hoping not to lose instead of playing to win. Time of possession is the most overrated, and useless statistic in modern college football. It seems as though college football is passing OSU by. OSU must change their “loser” mindset to become winners. Losers make excuses, losers bask in moral victories, losers blame others.
I think “How many empty seats will Reser Stadium have in 2012?” should be a top 5 story. It might not be a Top 5 story in January, but by the middle of October it will become a headline.
BeavWithABrain says:
Jan 4, 2012
OSU4Life if you wanted the OSU program to succeed so bad you should have worked harder in school so you would have millions to donate to the program. You blame the coaches but really it comes down to the boosters and how much money they can raise for the program. College Football is little different from a political race in that the probabilty of winning is based on the amount of money raised. True you don’t give money to a candidate unless you think they can win, however, they don’t win unless you give them money. The question is where were the boosters when the beavs were in the running for the Rose Bowl three straight years? An influx of $$$ would have gotten us over that hump. Instead we leave Riley to recruit corvallis on his own. In light of what Corvallis really is, a small town with nothing to do, it takes something special not only recruit here but also to remain coaching here when other jobs come calling. Riley is the best we are gonna get for some time and thats pretty damn good in my opinion (just look at this recruiting class and the two previous ones). If you want the program to succeed then donate money cause it will get a lot more done than your outlandish assertion that Riley needs to go.
OSU4Life says:
Jan 4, 2012
Ok Beavwithabrain, explain the success of teams like Boise State, West Virginia, TCU, Utah, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, and other programs win often and win the big games, yet they do more with less funds. It comes down to coaching, philosophies,and schemes. Not just money. If oregon still had Bellotti coaching them, would they be where they are now? Probably not. However, Bellotti did make some major changes and adjustments whenever things got stagnant or weren’t working. Mike Riley does not, and will not. I think this is what upsets Oregon State fans the most. He seems to be satisfied with mediocrity, and the same ol status quo. And it is NOT working. The program is broken and it needs to be fixed before it is too late, and time is running out quickly! I may not have a brain as magnified as yourself, but I have an abundant amount of common sense. To be successful you must take risks. Mike Riley likes to play it safe too much, and it trickles down to the players. As Mike Cavanaug would say: “We need some more A$$ Kickers on this team!”
7 says:
Jan 4, 2012
They also believe because they have some accountability. If Uncle Phil doesn’t like where his team is going, he can effect a change. That kind of accountability sure puts the spot light on areas of complacency.
bbb says:
Jan 3, 2012
we got a JC DT and he is HUGE! errr oopps, he is a zero star player.
hip hip hooray!
bbb says:
Jan 3, 2012
jumped the gun on this a bit. after watching his video i think the kid is a player. at least as good as anything we have and a lot bigger than all but castro,
RIP City Beav says:
Jan 4, 2012
I don’t think many of the ranking sites assign stars to JC players. I may be wrong, but it always seems as they aren’t ranked, no matter how good their numbers are.
OS_Beaver says:
Jan 3, 2012
Oregon’s Nike uniforms did not seem that crazy. The helmets were the distinguisher. Regardless more people read about these designs than followed Oregon St. stories all year long. OSU can’t compete with Oregon unless we get with the times and are ready for a bold identity of our own. It will still be true to OSU as long as we use our colors and focus on building a national winning identity that can attract top recruits to Corvallis and rival the Ducks head on. If we stay status quo or remain too conservative we will only fall further behind.
Oregon St. needs an Extreme Makeover:
http://beaverbyte.com
JPrice says:
Jan 3, 2012
Not sure Stanford will be that great next year. No Andrew Luck and losing two best OLineman will
be a big change offensively. Their new coach will have to prove he’s got the Harbaugh magic without
Luck. I think it’s difficult to evaluate our program the last two years given the way we’ve been decimated
with injuries. I’m amused by the posters who think Riley isn’t competitive and doesn’t know how to win given
his record at a school which has been a graveyard for coaches. And Kersting is exactly right, it’s all
about MONEY!
RenoNVbeavr says:
Jan 3, 2012
The Beavers blew any chance of an immediate turnaround by failing to address the two most glaring weaknesses on the team (besides recruiting): Offense creativity and Defensive adjustments. I can perhaps live with the offensive ineptude for one more season. However, when Riley passed up a much needed change to his defensive staff this signaled the end. UW just hired the one guy who was able to stiffe the Ducks defense (Justin Wilcox) for 2 years while at BSU, with arguably inferior talent than what he will inherit at UW. Riley couldnt see this yet Steve Sarkisian did???? Sarkisian’s hand-picked DC, Nick Holt, Mr. $2 million per year, was uncermoniously dumped for his defense’s poor production and lack of improvement over 3 years yet Mark Banker, of equally putrid units vs upper echelon teams, sits comfortably still at OS? My prediction for 2012: 6-6 and thank god we have Nichols State!
Ben says:
Jan 3, 2012
The last post is pure brilliance. Riley failed to address team needs for next season. The same players coming back and the same coaches in the same places. We won’t be anywhere near a bowl game next year. Riley just rode this team to such a low point, that it will take 2-3 years of VERY solid recruiting to get it back. I’m not convinced they answered the mail this year either. Sure, we got a bunch of O-linemen, but can they actually play? What have we done to truly shore up a horrible defensive line? No enough. Next season, we’ll be fortunate to win 5 games. I’m guessing 4 is more likely. We’ll see how quickly Rich Rod and Leach turns things around. I’m guessing there will be a huge IMMEDIATE impact just due to their presence.
wcjr says:
Jan 3, 2012
Reno! Reno! Reno! Last year at this time you were probably saying “thank god we have Sac ST.”
RenoNVBeavr says:
Jan 3, 2012
WCJR – At the beginning of the season, with a healthy Katz and a slieu of talented WR’s/TE’s, I predicted the Beavs would finish 7-5. So, yes, I was predicting they would handle Sac St. Silly me…
wcjr says:
Jan 3, 2012
Minor point to some, but not to me, esp. after yesterday. Did you all notice there was 1 second left in the 1st qtr. when UO went 91 yards for a td. Point being, as Reno and many others of us have said, Chip has the pedal to the metal every second. I made it a point several times this season to notice whenever the game clock wasless than the playclockRiley lets it just
run out, even if it has 22 or 23 seconds. Meanwhile, Chip runs 2 or 3 plays in that amount of time. Don’t you have more chances of advancing the ball the more plays you run? Riley’s mode of thinking is probably more chances for a turnover, which with his poorly-coached team is probably true. Anyway, guaranteed Mike and Danny wouldn’t have run a play with one second left in the quarter. Just 1 of many differences between Chip and Mike. Run a play or two no matter how much time is left(even if it’s only a second), or passively let the clock run down and head for the other end of the field. I know which coaching philosophy I prefer.
RenoNVBeavr says:
Jan 3, 2012
WCJR – As I am probably starting to sound like a broken record, love him or hate him Chip Kelly plays to win. Pure and simple. Win. Kelly above all people realizes that playing it safe -running a conservative risk free gameplan- will only “risk” his team at a chance for a loss. In turn, pouring points on, over and over despite time on the clock or pts already on the scoreboard are the only way to be sure of victory. How can his team possibly risk losing if they are always attacking, striving for TD’s, not settling for FG’s or playing the field postion? That is an emphatic philosophy difference from Riley and Kelly. I saw this more than ever in games vs Utah, Stanford and the CW. Riley was playing not to lose and that’s why the Beavs are sitting home watching bowl games 2 seasons in a row, not playing in one.
Cliff's Daddy says:
Jan 4, 2012
Riley is a burn out. And he doesnt recognize it. Constant change is the only way to stay competitive whether you are succeeding or not. Have two losing seasons in a row and you need to get new coordinators because their schemes and philosophies are obviously no longer effective. With an apathetic fan base, a do nothing Athletic Director Riley has little pressure to do what it takes. Of course he wont do the honorable thing and step down so the doldrums remain. This is exactly how the program fell into 30 years of hell. With the same players, coaches and plays how do you think the program magically rises to mediocre bowl level? The other teams are hungry. This one not so much.
Joey5Picks says:
Jan 4, 2012
Cliff’s Daddy – Post Of The Year!
“Constant change is the only way to stay competitive whether you are succeeding or not.”
That’s hilarious. So you’re saying no matter whether you go 11-1 or 1-11, you should make a change? That’s some different thinking. I hope you’re never a coach or AD at OSU.
OSUSupporter says:
Jan 4, 2012
Yes always change….and strive to get better even if you go 11-1. As my old football coach used to say: “to be satisfied is to be lazy.”
Riley is a dinosaur and no 4 or 5 star recruits want to come here to play for our pathetic coaches. That’s why we get mostly two star or less players who are not wanted by any PAC-12 program except us. And that’s why we will suck for the third year in a row and sit at home watching our big brother go to a BCS bowl game.
Every team in the league has made CHANGES to get better next year, including two teams that FIRED their coaches even though they led them to a bowl game!!! That’s the difference, we give Riley another year on his contract for getting us to a crappy third tier bowl game while other PAC-12 schools need to see more from their coaches. Sark fires his good friend after a lousy year…he has integrity, not just loyalty. He said enough is enough!
Riley standing pat means everyone else is passing him (and us) by. I for one am not giving another dime to this program until I see positive change. Oh and to those that think you can only win with a big money donor you are pathetic losers who want to blame something you cannot control. What you can do and control is your financial support for the program that will make BDC listen and force change.
That is unless you enjoy watching green and yellow on TV playing in a BCS bowl while our team is eating holiday meals with their families.
OSU4Life says:
Jan 4, 2012
+100
Well said and spot on! Thank you for posting your comment.
“What you can do and control is your financial support for the program that will make BDC listen and force change.”
This is 100% accurate, as unfortunate as it is. This is what BDC has allowed it to come down to. His arrogance and unwillingness for change is bringing OSU down.
I heard Bobby DeCarolis was all smiles while he was attending the Rose Bowl game and cheering on our Rival to victory! It wouldn’t surprise me if he was wearing a *uck shirt too. “He Don’t Care!”
BeaverFan97301 says:
Jan 4, 2012
Cliff’s Daddy is right. Riley is burned out. You can see it in his eyes, and written clearly across his face. The world of PAC-12 football is passing him by right before his eyes and he can’t bring himself to reinvent his approach or bring the changes needed to make OSU a winner again.
In the military, they call this R.O.A.D. (Retired On Active Duty) When longtime veterans, usually officers, sit there and merely mark the days until retirement. They are comfortable, they are established and they don’t care about their duties. All they care about is retiring.
Riley has gone ROAD on Beaver Nation. The fire is gone. But there is little we can do about it because of the sweetheart deal BDC gave Riley that ensures he can stay ROAD until either he doesn’t want to even show up to work anymore, or we get far enough into that sweetheart contract that we can actually afford to buy him out.
Dark times ahead Beaver Nation. Hope you are ready for the massive disappointments headed our way. Don’t expect Beaver football to be relevant again until Riley is gone. Somehwere around 2019 or so, if we are lucky.
Beavrob says:
Jan 4, 2012
To be optimistic it is helpful to understand What Went Wrong last season:
1) The injury plague swept through and infected much of the team. Multiple players missed the season due to injury and those who did recover from injury or surgery were just not the same.
2) Because of (1), Riley had to play a school record number of true freshman (10) and first time starters (23). This led to a mistake-prone team as evidenced by the number of penalties (ranked #118) and turnovers (#113), not a typical Riley-coached team.
3) Because of (1), the Beavers were in rebuilding mode on defense as they only had one returning starter, and they were basically ineffective across the board. The Beavs ranked #101 in rushing defense #104 in pass efficiency defense.
4) Riley bagged Katz for redshirt frosh Mannion after one bad half of play, basically throwing the offense into rebuilding mode as well. Despite Mannion’s potential, his inexperience lead to a multitude of mistakes which certainly cost the Beavers some games, and OSU ended up ranked 118th in INTs thrown.
5) The Beaver RBs had fumblitis (95th in fumbles, 73rd in fumbles lost). I find this ironic considering the coaches presumably bagged the more experienced McCants for fumblitis.
6) The Beavs had no running game (ranked 118th in rushing) largely due to ineffective offensive line play. Cliff had a good article in the GT on the history that lead to this (sorry, forgot link).
Beavrob says:
Jan 4, 2012
All that said, here are reasons for optimism:
1) According to Buker, OSU will return the most experienced team in the Pac-12: 16 returning starters and 58 players with experience!
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2012/01/oregon_state_football_seven_ho.html
This will result in better execution and consistency and fewer mistakes (penalties and turnovers).
2) The Beavers will return 8 starters on defense, and some are impact players, so they will be better. With extra help at DT, they will be much better.
3) Mannion returns after one year under his belt, along with several experienced and talented receivers. So long as Riley doesn’t bag Mannion like he did Katz, the offense will be better and there will be more TDs and fewer INTs thrown.
4) The Beavers return experience and talent at RB which will result in an improved running game and fewer fumbles.
5) There will be a large infusion of talent at the offensive line this coming year, both from recruiting and from redshirts. This may not pay immediate dividends, but it should help considering how ineffective the line was this past year…surely it cannot get worse!
6) At times it appeared the Beavs would be incapable of winning another game, yet they still managed three impressive wins, showing what they are capable of when firing on all cylinders.
7) 7 home games!! Has that ever happened before?
The future is bright Beavernation, so put on your shades! The Beavs will go bowling next year, bank on it!
OS_Beaver says:
Jan 5, 2012
I took Gman’s uniform concept and wrote a new piece on it. Added a contrasting OS to the neck is all. Why BDC takes years, if even then, to make changes that could take just days is beyond me.
Hey BDC…it took fans 1 Day!
http://beaverbyte.com