Sunday’s GT contained my prediction column for the Oregon State football team. At the end I had the Beavers going to the Las Vegas Bowl. This didn’t fit into the column due to space constraints of print, so here’s added analysis.
If the Beavers finished in third place they couldn’t go to the third-place Sun Bowl because they were there last year. There’s a no-repeat clause at the Sun Bowl.
That means they fall to the fourth-place Emerald Bowl. However, the Beavers were there two years ago. And the Emerald Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl are in the last year of the ability to switch picks to benefit both of them.
The Emerald Bowl depends on the Pac-10 to sell tickets to its game, and the ACC to deliver East Coast TV ratings. If there’s a team that hasn’t been to its game, the Emerald Bowl might trade the Beavers with Las Vegas.
Vegas hasn’t had the Beavers since 2003, so there’s a good chance that bowl would prefer the Beavers over recent teams Arizona, UCLA or Oregon.
So, I picked Vegas because the Beavers could finish third, four or fifth and it could mean the same results. I know, twisted logic, but I had to come up with something.
9 comments
NAgobeavs says:
Aug 31, 2009
Hey Cliff – This is a beavers blog right? How about just a small amount of optimism. There's lots of blog info on the Rodgers brothers (two of the best athletes in the Pac-10), Canfield playing really well, two senior quarterbacks, a tough D-line, talented receivers, and a group of Dbacks that is better than expected. That should add one or two wins we haven't gotten in years past. There have been O-line questions for the last, well dang I can't remember a year when there wasn't O-line questions. If anyone would understand that the Beavs are perennially underrated, I thought it might be you.
mxpx5678 says:
Aug 31, 2009
I think he is being optimistic. The top of the Pac-10 is still really tough. USC is going to be very good, Cal will be improved. Oregon is always dangerous, and then some team from the group of (UCLA, Arizona, ASU, Stanford, UW, WSU) will have a better than expected season. So Oregon State finishing in third would mean another really good season, probably 9 win range. I think with another year of experience you could see this team really excel (assuming Katz or Lalich get some good time in this year at some point)
ckirkpatrick says:
Aug 31, 2009
I wouldn't be surprised if OSU finished third this year. Second or first would surprise me, but it would be interesting. The point of this blog was to point out that finishing third, fourth or fifth could place the Beavers in the same place. It's just an odd year with odd circumstances.
Of course that all changes next year when bowls get picks and are not obligated to take who they get depending on standings. If OSU's traveling fan base remains strong, it could help the team get the nod to the Alamo and Holiday Bowls because they've never been there.
ckirkpatrick says:
Aug 31, 2009
The following post is from regular poster mxpx5678. For some reason the post is not appearing. So I'm putting it on for the poster..
mxpx5678
Submitted on 2009/08/31 at 11:11 AM
I think he is being optimistic. The top of the Pac-10 is still really tough. USC is going to be very good, Cal will be improved. Oregon is always dangerous, and then some team from the group of (UCLA, Arizona, ASU, Stanford, UW, WSU) will have a better than expected season. So Oregon State finishing in third would mean another really good season, probably 9 win range. I think with another year of experience you could see this team really excel (assuming Katz or Lalich get some good time in this year at some point)
Konce says:
Aug 31, 2009
Ah, Cliff, you just pick/hope the Beavers go to Vegas every year…I could have predicted your prediction!
Seriously though, I can't find fault with it, 7-5 is a very reasonable prediction.
~Konce
beavsfan10 says:
Sep 1, 2009
Wow, for a team that has finished in the top-25 for 3 straight years this looks like its going to be an awful season. If we finish 7-5 then I wouldn't ever clamor for OSU to get more respect or be ranked up there among the top-25 again. Average schools accept (or expect) 7-5 seasons not top programs. I am from Georgia and if UGA went 7-5 this year Mark Richt would be looking for a new job, end of story. I don't get how Beaver fans can think 7-5 is an 'optimistic' prediction after being a game from the Rose Bowl last year. In fact, I think another season under 10 wins would be a huge disappointment and a step back as a program. Here is to hoping for at least a 10 win season and not just mediocrity!
GO BEAVS!!!
BeavR says:
Aug 31, 2009
Cliff, this is a slap in the face to beaver fans. 7-5 is not an optimistic season…it’s a mediocre season. If you’re going to predict 3rd for the beavs, spare us the prediction on how the selection committees make their decision. 3rd= sun bowl. If we get 3rd and the best bowl we can get to is vegas, I would hope mike role turns it down as it would be an insult.
BeavR says:
Aug 31, 2009
Apologies for my grammar…I’m typing on a phone. Cliff, you should know better. You’re on my sh*t list. Take some notes from Buker.
Elcorin says:
Sep 2, 2009
Not sure that this is true:), but thanks for a post.
Thanks
Elcorin